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Insights

Longer work, and the world underneath it.

A study sets out a matter at length: what the evidence supports, what it does not, and where the argument would break. Each one carries a hundred adjudicated claims resolving to numbered references, and ships with the model of its own world, so you can move the numbers and watch the conclusion hold or fall.

Showing all 3 studies.

The volume wall: 96 thousand tonnes of battery waste for recycling in 2024, 230 to 420 thousand tonnes in 2030, and 1,500 to 2,100 thousand tonnes by 2040.
Energy and circular economy100 claims · 83 references

Europe’s Most Valuable Mine Is a Scrapheap

Regulation, returning batteries and factory scrap are turning dead batteries into industrial raw material. Who captures the value, and with whose money, is an open race.

Capability demonstratedBankability analysis

Read and download20 pages · 3.5 MB PDF
The saving is electricity: 12 kWh per kilogram for pyrolysis against 52.4 to 55 kWh for the two mainstream electrolyser routes.
Energy and deep tech100 claims · 80 references

Hydrogen’s Dark Horse Is Turquoise

Methane pyrolysis makes clean hydrogen and solid carbon instead of CO2, for less than a quarter of the electricity electrolysis needs; two prices and one leak rate decide whether it wins.

Capabilities demonstratedTechno-economic modelling, Patent landscaping

Read and download20 pages · 3.0 MB PDF
Wide at award, empty at reorder: 292 disclosed award projects, one acceptance chain, zero verified payments, zero verified reorders.
Robotics and AI100 claims · 70 references

The Demo Economy

The West keeps score in demo views and funding rounds. The buyer’s paper trail keeps score in inspections passed, money paid and repeat orders, and that side of the scoreboard is nearly blank.

Capability demonstratedAdjudication and de-biasing

Read and download20 pages · 3.2 MB PDF

Each card states the sector the study is about, and the evidence it stands on: a hundred separately sourced claims, every one of them resolving to a numbered reference with its link verified.

What is behind a study.

A study that cannot be checked is an opinion with typography. These are the conditions each of the three satisfies, and they are the reason the work took as long as it did.

01

Every claim adjudicated

A hundred separately sourced claims per study, each resolving to a numbered reference with its link verified. Every section header states how many claims that section rests on, and every figure carries the claim ids behind the values it prints.

02

A counterweight, argued

The strongest case against the study’s own conclusion is written by someone whose job is to make it, and answered in the text rather than omitted from it. Where it wins, the conclusion moves.

03

What we could not establish

Each study carries a section naming what the evidence did not settle, and a second naming what would change our mind. A gap stated is worth more to a reader than a gap papered over.

04

A world you can argue with

The model under each study ships with it: parameters at their evidenced ranges, the equations that connect them, and the thresholds at which the argument breaks. You can drive it to that point yourself.

Every study also ships the model of its own world: the parameters, the equations, the evidenced ranges and the thresholds at which the argument breaks. The page for each study opens it.

The method is the product, and it is in the open.

These three demonstrate it on subjects nobody paid us to publish. If the matter you are deciding is not one of them, the same method applies to it, and the first conversation is about whether it should.