The world under Hydrogen’s Dark Horse Is Turquoise

What you can move

21 of the model’s 123 values. The copper band is the range the evidence publishes; the dark line is the study’s own setting.

Published scenario

The report's own case: the verified February 2026 European input set, the carbon sold in full at the model's blended price, and a documented low-leakage pipeline supply route.

Delivered natural gas price on the Dutch TTF benchmark31

EUR per MWh

Delivered electricity price at the plant gate75

EUR per MWh

EU emissions allowance price applied to every route's own carbon intensity81

EUR per tonne CO2

Installed build cost of the first-of-a-kind modular plant90

EUR million

Weighted average cost of capital applied to the build8%

fraction per year

Share of the year the plant runs at rate91.5%

fraction of the year

Blended realised selling price of the solid carbon700

EUR per tonne

Share of the solid carbon that finds a buyer100%

fraction of output

Upstream methane leakage across the gas supply chain0.07%

fraction of throughput

Electricity drawn per kilogram of hydrogen12

kWh per kg H2

Electricity drawn per kilogram of hydrogen by the mainstream electrolyser routes52.4

kWh per kg H2

Low end of the green hydrogen production-cost band before any allowance charge6

EUR per kg H2

High end of the green hydrogen production-cost band before any allowance charge10

EUR per kg H2

Solid carbon put into the European market by the whole pyrolysis sector40

kilotonnes per year

Technology readiness level of the reactor route being financed5

readiness level

Cradle-to-gate emissions of the plant itself, before any upstream leak2

kg CO2e per kg H2

Catalyst replacement rate as a multiple of the design assumption1

multiple of design rate

Annual growth of the allowance price along the projection11.7%

fraction per year

Annual growth of active turquoise patent families30%

fraction per year

Annual growth of sector solid-carbon supply along the projection55.4%

fraction per year

Year at which the projection is evaluated2030

calendar year

The claim under testHypothesis 4 of 5

If green arrives at its projected 2030 floor before a first plant is financed, the window is a knife edge rather than a cushion.

Binding margin · EUR per kg H2

0.37holds

holdsstrainedflips

The study’s claim still stands at these settings.

At the settings this claim was tested at, the model returns holds.

Undercuts grey · passesUndercuts green · passesClimate rail · passes

Levelised cost

2.44EUR per kg H2

against the study’s case

Levelised cost no carbon

5.24EUR per kg H2

against the study’s case

Margin against grey

0.37EUR per kg H2

against the study’s case

Margin against green

3.584EUR per kg H2

against the study’s case

Grey effective point

2.81EUR per kg H2

against the study’s case

Electricity saving fraction

77.1%fraction

of the whole · tick is the study

Total energy ratio against electrolysis

1.356ratio

against the study’s case

Binding leak ceiling

0.63%fraction of throughput

of the whole · tick is the study

Near zero pass GWP100

passesgate

gate met

Final investment decision gate pass

passesgate

gate met

Hypothesis

159 derived quantities, evaluated in the order the model declares. The expression under each is the model’s own.