World simulator

Europe’s Most Valuable Mine Is a Scrapheap

At the study’s own caseThe study

What you can move

31 of the model’s 69 values. The copper band is the range the evidence publishes; the dark line is the study’s own setting.

The report's own case: the corpus's assessment series compounded from its 2024 anchor, the 100 per cent take-back duty read as the collection basis, the operating fleet's own refining ratio, the 2025 price screen and the 2031 statutory step in force.

21.3%
fraction per year
75%
fraction of feedstock
100%
fraction of arisings
0.45
tonnes per tonne
4%
fraction of black mass
12.5%
fraction of black mass
10%
fraction of black mass
10,542
US dollars per tonne
13.5
US dollars per pound
14,900
US dollars per tonne
94%
fraction of contained lithium
97%
fraction of contained cobalt and nickel
15%
fraction of contained lithium
90%
fraction of contained cobalt and nickel
97%
fraction of contained cathode
3,608.5
US dollars per tonne processed
938.5
US dollars per tonne processed
4,447
US dollars per tonne processed
8
readiness level, one to nine
9
readiness level, one to nine
5
readiness level, one to nine
7
readiness level, one to nine
65.6%
fraction of refining
0%
fraction of refining
4%
fraction of the lithium price
74%
fraction of contained nickel and cobalt value
36.8%
fraction of black mass
520
kt per year
80%
fraction of contained lithium
6%
fraction of contained lithium
58%
fraction against virgin mining
The claim under testHypothesis 1 of 5

The report's case: the volumes and the law are real, and whether Europe owns the profitable half is undecided and turns on bankability rather than on inevitability.

Quota service ratio · ratio
0.6251strained
holdsstrainedflips

The claim neither clearly stands nor clearly fails at these settings.

The world is at the study’s own case, which is where this claim was tested.

0flips at 0.332holds at 12

The copper mark is your reading. The grey span is the same configuration read across the published normalisation band. The two ticks are the thresholds the model computes, and they stay put.

Arisings 2030
305.7kt per year
against the study’s case
Feedstock to plants 2030
305.7kt per year
against the study’s case
Utilisation 2030
58.8%fraction of capacity
of the whole · tick is the study
Refining utilisation 2030
58.8%fraction of capacity
of the whole · tick is the study
Priced value per t black mass
5,632US dollars per tonne of black mass
against the study’s case
Hydrometallurgy margin per t black mass
1,841.9US dollars per tonne of black mass
against the study’s case
Smelting margin per t black mass
3,814US dollars per tonne of black mass
against the study’s case
Export netback per t black mass
3,872.5US dollars per tonne of black mass
against the study’s case
Hydrometallurgy smelting crossover lithium price
72,951.9US dollars per tonne
against the study’s case
Export refine crossover lithium price
66,948.1US dollars per tonne
against the study’s case
Any EU route available
passesgate
gate met
EU refined share effective
36.8%fraction of black mass
of the whole · tick is the study
EU refined lithium coverage
3.75%fraction of 2030 EU lithium demand
of the whole · tick is the study
Total recycled lithium coverage
10.2%fraction of 2030 EU lithium demand
of the whole · tick is the study
Quota service ratio
0.6251ratio
against the study’s case
Quota origin gap ratio
1.071ratio
against the study’s case
Lithium value retained share
37.1%fraction of lithium value
of the whole · tick is the study
Blended value retained share
79.1%fraction of priced value
of the whole · tick is the study
Value forgone 2030
162.1millions of US dollars per year
against the study’s case
Greenhouse gas saving blended
75.3%fraction against virgin mining
of the whole · tick is the study
Hypothesis
Hypothesis

124 derived quantities, evaluated in the order the model declares. The expression under each is the model’s own.